Réal du Faso v RCK prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:11

Réal du Faso 0–1 RCK RÉAL DU FASO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Réal du Faso win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Réal du Faso win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Réal du Faso 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–35–27
31′Little has changed for our model: Réal du Faso 38% before kick-off, 32% now. 0–0 · 32–44–23
39′RCK find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' RCK win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
41′We said Réal du Faso at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–71
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was RCK win 24%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' RCK win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' RCK win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 23%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was RCK win 24%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' RCK win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 23%)
43′The goal count is tracking the 1.7 we expected. 0–1 · 6–22–71
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' RCK win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 23%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was RCK win 24%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' RCK win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' RCK win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was RCK win 24%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Réal du Faso win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was RCK win 24%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Réal du Faso win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Réal du Faso 0–1 RCK
46′SECOND HALF Réal du Faso 0–1 RCK
48′⚽ GOAL · 38' Réal du Faso 0–1 RCK
FTFULL TIME Réal du Faso 0–1 RCK
FTRéal du Faso 0–1 RCK · Réal du Faso win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:32 · locked at kick-off

Réal du Faso win38%

Draw36%

RCK win26%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:30

VenueStade Wobi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Réal du Faso

RCK

10Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Réal du Faso	3	+1	4
15	RCK	3	−3	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · réal du faso winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Réal du Faso a 38% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Réal du Faso win	38%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
RCK win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	23%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	50%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Réal du Faso or draw	74%	–	–
Réal du Faso clean sheet	49%	–	–
RCK clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.1%

0123450 20.1 13.2 5.0 1 17.2 13.2 4.6 2 8.3 5.9 2.1 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Réal du Faso down, RCK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Ligue 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 0.83 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Réal du Faso at home: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). RCK away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Réal du Faso, 0.72 for RCK. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~0.83

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~0 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RCK 0–2 REA · REA 1–0 RCK · RCK 0–0 REA · REA 1–0 RCK

Form · last six in Ligue 1

RÉAL DU FASO

WWDLDW2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

RCK

LDWDLL0–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	USFA	3	+6	9
2	Rahimo	4	+4	9
3	FocuSport	4	0	9
4	Vitesse	4	+3	8
5	SONABEL	4	+3	6
6	ASFA-Yennenga	3	+2	6
7	Majestic	4	−1	6
8	Réal du Faso	3	+1	4
9	Maya	3	0	4
10	CFFEB	4	−1	4
11	ASFB	4	−2	4
12	Comoé	4	−2	4
13	Sporting Cascades	4	−3	4
14	Douanes	3	−1	3
15	RCK	3	−3	1
16	Salitas	4	−6	1