Rahimo v Sporting Cascades prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Rahimo 3–1 Sporting Cascades RAHIMO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rahimo win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.354

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rahimo win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rahimo 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–29–20
1′KICK-OFF Rahimo v Sporting Cascades
21′Rahimo score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
21′We said Rahimo at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Rahimo 1–0 Sporting Cascades
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Rahimo win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Rahimo win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
44′Rahimo find the net on 44′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Rahimo 2–0 Sporting Cascades
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Rahimo win: 52% at kick-off, 97% now
45′We said Rahimo at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
45′HALF-TIME Rahimo 2–1 Sporting Cascades
46′Rahimo ahead on 43′ through A. Konate. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
46′SECOND HALF Rahimo 2–1 Sporting Cascades
48′Rahimo score on 48′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Rahimo 3–1 Sporting Cascades
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Rahimo win: 52% at kick-off, 97% now
49′A goal for Sporting Cascades on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–14–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Rahimo 2–1 Sporting Cascades
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Rahimo win: 52% at kick-off, 83% now
77′We said Rahimo at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Rahimo 3–1 Sporting Cascades
FTRahimo 3–1 Sporting Cascades · Rahimo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rahimo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rahimo 52%, draw 28%, Sporting Cascades 20%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Rahimo v Sporting CascadesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

Rahimo win52%

Draw28%

Sporting Cascades win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStade Wobi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rahimo

Sporting Cascades

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rahimo winFirst published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Rahimo a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rahimo v Sporting Cascades~~1.41 – 0.76

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rahimo win	52%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Sporting Cascades win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Rahimo or draw	80%	–	–
Rahimo clean sheet	47%	–	–
Sporting Cascades clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 12.3 8.2 3.3 1 15.6 12.6 4.6 2 11.2 8.4 3.2 3 5.3 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rahimo down, Sporting Cascades across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,537 Ligue 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rahimo at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Cascades away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Rahimo, 0.76 for Sporting Cascades. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SPO 2–0 RAH · RAH 2–1 SPO · SPO 0–2 RAH · RAH 1–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept

RAHIMO

WWLW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 4–1

SPORTING CASCADES

DWLL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	4	+4	9
2	ASFA-Yennenga	4	+3	9
3	USFA	4	+5	9
4	FocuSport	4	0	9
5	Vitesse	4	+3	8
6	Majestic	4	−1	6
7	Douanes	4	0	6
8	SONABEL	4	+3	6
9	Maya	4	−1	4
10	ASFB	4	−2	4
11	RCK	4	−2	4
12	Sporting Cascades	4	−3	4
13	Réal du Faso	4	0	4
14	CFFEB	4	−1	4
15	Comoé	4	−2	4
16	Salitas	4	−6	1