Rahimo v SONABEL prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Rahimo 1–0 SONABEL RAHIMO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rahimo win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rahimo win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rahimo 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–29–21
1′KICK-OFF Rahimo v SONABEL
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Rahimo win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
42′We said Rahimo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–43–19
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Rahimo win 40%)
45′HALF-TIME Rahimo 0–0 SONABEL
46′SECOND HALF Rahimo 0–0 SONABEL
51′We said Rahimo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–17
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Rahimo win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
60′We said Rahimo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–15
68′We said Rahimo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Rahimo win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
74′We said Rahimo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
79′We said Rahimo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
83′We said Rahimo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Rahimo win: 50% at kick-off, 9% now
90′We said Rahimo at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
94′Rahimo score on 90′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Rahimo 1–0 SONABEL
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Rahimo win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Rahimo win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
95′We said Rahimo at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Rahimo 1–0 SONABEL
FTRahimo 1–0 SONABEL · Rahimo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rahimo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rahimo 50%, draw 29%, SONABEL 21%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Rahimo v SONABELBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Rahimo win50%

Draw29%

SONABEL win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Wobi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rahimo

SONABEL

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rahimo winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Rahimo a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rahimo v SONABEL~~1.36 – 0.78

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 18 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~1 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rahimo win	50%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
SONABEL win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Rahimo or draw	79%	–	–
Rahimo clean sheet	46%	–	–
SONABEL clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 12.5 8.9 3.6 1 15.6 12.7 4.8 2 10.7 8.3 3.2 3 4.9 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rahimo down, SONABEL across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rahimo at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). SONABEL away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Rahimo, 0.78 for SONABEL. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SON 1–2 RAH · RAH 0–0 SON · SON 0–0 RAH · RAH 1–0 SON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 18 Sept

RAHIMO

WWLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 3–1

SONABEL

LLWWL0–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	5	+6	12
2	USFA	5	+6	12
3	FocuSport	5	+1	12
4	Vitesse	5	+4	11
5	Douanes	5	+3	9
6	ASFA-Yennenga	5	+2	9
7	CFFEB	5	+4	7
8	Réal du Faso	5	+1	7
9	ASFB	5	0	7
10	Majestic	5	−2	6
11	SONABEL	5	+2	6
12	Maya	5	−2	4
13	Comoé	5	−4	4
14	Sporting Cascades	5	−5	4
15	RCK	5	−7	4
16	Salitas	5	−9	1