Majestic v USFA prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Majestic 0–1 USFA USFA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said USFA win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said USFA win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: USFA was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 29–35–36
1′KICK-OFF Majestic v USFA
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was USFA win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Majestic 0–0 USFA
46′SECOND HALF Majestic 0–0 USFA
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' USFA win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
53′We said USFA at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–55–24
64′We said USFA at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 16–64–19
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' USFA win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
73′We said USFA at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
79′A goal for USFA on 79′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–91
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Majestic 0–1 USFA
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' USFA win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' USFA win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
80′We published USFA at 36%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–1 · 0–7–92
84′We published USFA at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' USFA win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Majestic 0–1 USFA
FTMajestic 0–1 USFA · USFA win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with USFA just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Majestic 29%, draw 34%, USFA 36%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Majestic v USFABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

Majestic win29%

Draw34%

USFA win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStade Municipal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Majestic

USFA

8Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	USFA	4	+5	9
6	Majestic	4	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usfa winFirst published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make USFA a 36% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Majestic v USFA~~0.82 – 0.94

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 9~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Majestic win	29%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
USFA win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Majestic or draw	64%	–	–
Majestic clean sheet	39%	–	–
USFA clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.0%

0123450 18.0 15.6 7.6 2.4 1 13.5 13.6 6.2 2 5.8 5.4 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Majestic down, USFA across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,537 Ligue 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Majestic at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). USFA away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Majestic, 0.94 for USFA. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAJ 1–1 USF · USF 0–1 MAJ · USF 1–2 MAJ · MAJ 0–0 USF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 18 Sept

MAJESTIC

WLLW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

USFA

WWWL1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	4	+4	9
2	ASFA-Yennenga	4	+3	9
3	USFA	4	+5	9
4	FocuSport	4	0	9
5	Vitesse	4	+3	8
6	Majestic	4	−1	6
7	Douanes	4	0	6
8	SONABEL	4	+3	6
9	Maya	4	−1	4
10	ASFB	4	−2	4
11	RCK	4	−2	4
12	Sporting Cascades	4	−3	4
13	Réal du Faso	4	0	4
14	CFFEB	4	−1	4
15	Comoé	4	−2	4
16	Salitas	4	−6	1