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Model 1.2

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FocuSport v Salitas

FocuSport
0–1Full time
Salitas

Ligue 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17
FocuSport 0–1 Salitas FOCUSPORT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FocuSport win43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.741

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FocuSport win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FocuSport was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FocuSport v Salitas
  4. 10′A goal for Salitas on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–23–59
  5. 10′We said FocuSport at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–59
  6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' FocuSport 0–1 Salitas
  7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' FocuSport win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Salitas win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was FocuSport win 41%)
  9. 17′K. Kone scores for Salitas on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–60
  10. 29′We said FocuSport at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  12. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FocuSport win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME FocuSport 0–1 Salitas
  14. 46′SECOND HALF FocuSport 0–1 Salitas
  15. 48′We said FocuSport at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
  16. 66′We said FocuSport at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
  17. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' FocuSport win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  18. FTFULL TIME FocuSport 0–1 Salitas
  19. FTFocuSport 0–1 Salitas · FocuSport win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FocuSport are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FocuSport 43%, draw 27%, Salitas 30%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on FocuSport v SalitasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

FocuSport win43%
Draw27%
Salitas win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FocuSport

Salitas

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3FocuSport5+112
16Salitas5−91

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · focusport winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make FocuSport a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FocuSport v Salitas1.41 – 1.15
Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 SeptW4 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L4
Table places · points 12 v 13 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FocuSport win43%––
Draw27%––
Salitas win30%––
Over 2.5 goals47%––
Both teams to score52%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
FocuSport or draw70%––
FocuSport clean sheet32%––
Salitas clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 8.4 8.5 5.1 1 10.5 12.7 7.1 2.7 2 7.7 8.7 5.0 3 3.7 4.1 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FocuSport down, Salitas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept

FOCUSPORT

WWWLW1–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 2–1

SALITAS

DLLLL2–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rahimo5+612
2USFA5+612
3FocuSport5+112
4Vitesse5+411
5Douanes5+39
6ASFA-Yennenga5+29
7CFFEB5+47
8Réal du Faso5+17
9ASFB507
10Majestic5−26
11SONABEL5+26
12Maya5−24
13Comoé5−44
14Sporting Cascades5−54
15RCK5−74
16Salitas5−91

The competition's standings before kick-off.