Douanes v RCK prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DouanesDrawRCK

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Douanes 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Douanes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Douanes 48%, draw 31%, RCK 21%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Douanes v RCKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Douanes win48%

Draw31%

RCK win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Demba Diop

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Douanes

RCK

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Douanes	5	+3	9
15	RCK	5	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · douanes winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Douanes a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Douanes v RCK~~1.23 – 0.70

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~5 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Douanes win	48%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
RCK win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Douanes or draw	79%	–	–
Douanes clean sheet	50%	–	–
RCK clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.5%

0123450 15.3 9.8 3.6 1 17.5 12.6 4.3 2 10.9 7.5 2.6 3 4.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Douanes down, RCK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Douanes at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). RCK away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Douanes, 0.70 for RCK. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RCK 1–3 DOU · DOU 0–0 RCK · DOU 0–0 RCK · RCK 0–2 DOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept

DOUANES

LLWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–1

RCK

DLLWL2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	5	+6	12
2	USFA	5	+6	12
3	FocuSport	5	+1	12
4	Vitesse	5	+4	11
5	Douanes	5	+3	9
6	ASFA-Yennenga	5	+2	9
7	CFFEB	5	+4	7
8	Réal du Faso	5	+1	7
9	ASFB	5	0	7
10	Majestic	5	−2	6
11	SONABEL	5	+2	6
12	Maya	5	−2	4
13	Comoé	5	−4	4
14	Sporting Cascades	5	−5	4
15	RCK	5	−7	4
16	Salitas	5	−9	1