Comoé v ASFB prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Comoé 2–4 ASFB COMOÉ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Comoé win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.700

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Comoé win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Comoé 35% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 34–34–32
1′KICK-OFF Comoé v ASFB
7′A goal for Comoé on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
7′We said Comoé at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Comoé 1–0 ASFB
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Comoé win: 35% at kick-off, 69% now
12′We said Comoé at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
28′ASFB score on 28′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–41–28
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Comoé 1–1 ASFB
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Comoé win: 35% at kick-off, 30% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Comoé win 30%)
45′ASFB find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–74
45′We said Comoé at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–21–74
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Comoé 1–2 ASFB
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Comoé win: 35% at kick-off, 6% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' ASFB win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
45′HALF-TIME Comoé 1–2 ASFB
46′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–20–74
46′A goal for ASFB on 46′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–95
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Comoé win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
46′SECOND HALF Comoé 1–2 ASFB
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Comoé 1–3 ASFB
47′We said Comoé at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
47′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–5–95
48′ASFB ahead on 44′ through G. C. Sereme. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
73′Comoé score on 72′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 1–13–86
73′5 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–13–86
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Comoé 2–3 ASFB
74′ASFB find the net on 74′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–1–99
74′That is 6, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–1–99
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Comoé 2–4 ASFB
FTFULL TIME Comoé 2–4 ASFB
FTComoé 2–4 ASFB · Comoé win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Comoé just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Comoé 35%, draw 34%, ASFB 32%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Comoé v ASFBBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

Comoé win35%

Draw34%

ASFB win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Comoé

ASFB

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 9 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	ASFB	4	−2	4
15	Comoé	4	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · comoé winFirst published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Comoé a 35% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Comoé v ASFB~~0.94 – 0.88

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Comoé win	35%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
ASFB win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Comoé or draw	68%	–	–
Comoé clean sheet	42%	–	–
ASFB clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.1%

0123450 17.1 13.7 6.3 1 14.6 13.7 5.8 2 7.1 6.2 2.7 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Comoé down, ASFB across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,537 Ligue 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Comoé at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). ASFB away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Comoé, 0.88 for ASFB. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~COM 1–1 ASF · ASF 2–0 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept

COMOÉ

LWLD0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

ASFB

DWLL2–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	4	+4	9
2	ASFA-Yennenga	4	+3	9
3	USFA	4	+5	9
4	FocuSport	4	0	9
5	Vitesse	4	+3	8
6	Majestic	4	−1	6
7	Douanes	4	0	6
8	SONABEL	4	+3	6
9	Maya	4	−1	4
10	ASFB	4	−2	4
11	RCK	4	−2	4
12	Sporting Cascades	4	−3	4
13	Réal du Faso	4	0	4
14	CFFEB	4	−1	4
15	Comoé	4	−2	4
16	Salitas	4	−6	1