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CFFEB v Salitas

CFFEB

1–0Full time

Salitas

Ligue 1 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:02

CFFEB 1–0 Salitas CFFEB WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CFFEB win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.559

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.494

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CFFEB win39%

Draw31%

Salitas win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 16:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cffeb winPublished 9 Oct 16:36

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make CFFEB a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cffeb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CFFEB win	39%	43%	−4
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Salitas win	30%	28%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	66%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−4
CFFEB or draw	70%	72%	−3
CFFEB clean sheet	38%	–	–
Salitas clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.8 10.9 5.7 1 13.0 13.8 6.4 2.2 2 7.9 7.6 3.7 3 3.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CFFEB down, Salitas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,529 Ligue 1 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CFFEB at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Salitas away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for CFFEB, 0.98 for Salitas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CFF 0–0 SAL · SAL 1–0 CFF

Form · last six in Ligue 1

CFFEB

WWWDLL2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

SALITAS

LWWDLL1–3 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	USFA	3	+6	9
2	FocuSport	3	+3	9
3	Vitesse	3	+3	7
4	ASFA-Yennenga	3	+2	6
5	Rahimo	3	+1	6
6	Réal du Faso	3	+1	4
7	Sporting Cascades	3	0	4
8	Maya	3	0	4
9	ASFB	3	−1	4
10	SONABEL	3	0	3
11	Douanes	3	−1	3
12	Majestic	3	−2	3
13	Comoé	3	−2	3
14	CFFEB	3	−2	1
15	RCK	3	−3	1
16	Salitas	3	−5	1