ASFB v Vitesse prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ASFBDrawVitesse

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Vitesse 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vitesse just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: ASFB 30%, draw 33%, Vitesse 37%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on ASFB v VitesseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

ASFB win30%

Draw33%

Vitesse win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASFB

Vitesse

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vitesse	5	+4	11
9	ASFB	5	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vitesse winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Vitesse a 37% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ASFB v Vitesse~~0.88 – 1.00

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASFB win	30%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Vitesse win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
ASFB or draw	63%	–	–
ASFB clean sheet	37%	–	–
Vitesse clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.9%

0123450 15.9 14.8 7.7 2.6 1 12.9 13.6 6.6 2.3 2 5.9 5.8 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASFB down, Vitesse across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASFB at home: 0.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vitesse away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for ASFB, 1.00 for Vitesse. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ASF 0–0 VIT · VIT 1–2 ASF · ASF 0–0 VIT · VIT 1–1 ASF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Sept

ASFB

DWLLW2–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 4–2

VITESSE

DWWDW2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	5	+6	12
2	USFA	5	+6	12
3	FocuSport	5	+1	12
4	Vitesse	5	+4	11
5	Douanes	5	+3	9
6	ASFA-Yennenga	5	+2	9
7	CFFEB	5	+4	7
8	Réal du Faso	5	+1	7
9	ASFB	5	0	7
10	Majestic	5	−2	6
11	SONABEL	5	+2	6
12	Maya	5	−2	4
13	Comoé	5	−4	4
14	Sporting Cascades	5	−5	4
15	RCK	5	−7	4
16	Salitas	5	−9	1