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Model 1.2

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ASFA-Yennenga v Réal du Faso

ASFA-Yennenga
0–1Full time
Réal du Faso

Ligue 1 · SUN 18 OCT · Stade du 4 Aout

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02
ASFA-Yennenga 0–1 Réal du Faso DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.757

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–36–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF ASFA-Yennenga v Réal du Faso
  4. 5′Réal du Faso find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–66
  5. 5′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 12–23–66
  6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' ASFA-Yennenga 0–1 Réal du Faso
  7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 23% now
  8. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Réal du Faso win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 23%)
  9. 34′The goal count is tracking the 1.6 we expected. 0–1 · 7–22–71
  10. 45′HALF-TIME ASFA-Yennenga 0–1 Réal du Faso
  11. 47′SECOND HALF ASFA-Yennenga 0–1 Réal du Faso
  12. 52′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
  13. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
  14. 68′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
  15. 78′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  16. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
  17. 86′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
  18. FTFULL TIME ASFA-Yennenga 0–1 Réal du Faso
  19. FTASFA-Yennenga 0–1 Réal du Faso · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: ASFA-Yennenga 35%, draw 36%, Réal du Faso 29%. Over 2.5 goals 22%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on ASFA-Yennenga v Réal du FasoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

ASFA-Yennenga win35%
Draw36%
Réal du Faso win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStade du 4 Aout

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASFA-Yennenga

Réal du Faso

6Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3ASFA-Yennenga4+39
13Réal du Faso404

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off
36% The market–
Us36%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ASFA-Yennenga v Réal du Faso0.86 – 0.76
Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 SeptW3 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L2
Table places · points 9 v 43 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ASFA-Yennenga win35%––
Draw36%––
Réal du Faso win29%––
Over 2.5 goals22%––
Both teams to score31%––
Over 1.5 goals49%––
Over 3.5 goals8%––
ASFA-Yennenga or draw71%––
ASFA-Yennenga clean sheet47%––
Réal du Faso clean sheet42%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.5%
0123450 20.5 14.4 5.7 1 16.5 13.2 4.8 2 7.4 5.5 2.1 3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ASFA-Yennenga down, Réal du Faso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting1.33
Over 2.50 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsASF 0–1 REA · REA 0–1 ASF · REA 0–1 ASF · ASF 1–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept

ASFA-YENNENGA

WLWW1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

RÉAL DU FASO

LDWL1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rahimo5+612
2USFA5+612
3ASFA-Yennenga4+39
4FocuSport409
5Vitesse4+38
6ASFB507
7SONABEL4+36
8Douanes406
9Majestic5−26
10Maya4−14
11RCK4−24
12Sporting Cascades5−54
13Réal du Faso404
14CFFEB4−14
15Comoé5−44
16Salitas4−61

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Last updated 18 Oct 03:46 UK time.