Strumska Slava v Levski Sofia II prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Strumska SlavaDrawLevski Sofia II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Strumska Slava 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Strumska Slava are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Strumska Slava 62%, draw 21%, Levski Sofia II 17%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Strumska Slava v Levski Sofia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Strumska Slava win62%

Draw21%

Levski Sofia II win17%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

VenueHristo Radovanov Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strumska Slava

Levski Sofia II

25Days since last match18

Last match: 3 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strumska slava winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Strumska Slava a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Strumska Slava v Levski Sofia II~~1.95 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~5 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strumska Slava win	62%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Levski Sofia II win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Strumska Slava or draw	83%	–	–
Strumska Slava clean sheet	42%	–	–
Levski Sofia II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 6.2 5.5 2.3 1 11.9 9.8 4.4 2 11.2 9.5 4.2 3 7.3 6.2 2.7 4 3.6 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Strumska Slava down, Levski Sofia II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strumska Slava at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Levski Sofia II away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Strumska Slava, 0.87 for Levski Sofia II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STR 0–1 LEV · LEV 1–1 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

STRUMSKA SLAVA

WLWLWL3–0 · 2–5 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

LEVSKI SOFIA II

LDWDWL0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7