Strumska Slava v Botev Ihtiman prediction · Third League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Strumska Slava are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Strumska Slava 58%, draw 21%, Botev Ihtiman 21%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Strumska Slava v Botev IhtimanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Strumska Slava win58%

Draw21%

Botev Ihtiman win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

VenueHristo Radovanov Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strumska Slava

Botev Ihtiman

14Days since last match10

Last match: 3 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 7 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strumska slava winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Strumska Slava a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Strumska Slava v Botev Ihtiman~~2.04 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 15~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strumska Slava win	58%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Botev Ihtiman win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Strumska Slava or draw	79%	–	–
Strumska Slava clean sheet	33%	–	–
Botev Ihtiman clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.5 5.0 2.7 1 9.0 9.5 5.3 2.0 2 8.8 9.5 5.3 2.0 3 6.0 6.5 3.6 4 3.1 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Strumska Slava down, Botev Ihtiman across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,820 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strumska Slava at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Botev Ihtiman away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Strumska Slava, 1.12 for Botev Ihtiman. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STR 2–1 BOT · BOT 1–2 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

STRUMSKA SLAVA

WLWLWL3–0 · 2–5 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

BOTEV IHTIMAN

WWWLLL2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	−2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	−4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	−16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	−17	7