Slivnishki geroy v Oborishte prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Slivnishki geroyDrawOborishte

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Oborishte 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Oborishte just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Slivnishki geroy 36%, draw 27%, Oborishte 37%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Slivnishki geroy v OborishteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Slivnishki geroy win36%

Draw27%

Oborishte win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slivnishki geroy

Oborishte

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Oborishte	12	+13	25
8	Slivnishki geroy	13	−1	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oborishte winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Oborishte a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slivnishki geroy v Oborishte~~1.26 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 25~~8 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slivnishki geroy win	36%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Oborishte win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy or draw	63%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy clean sheet	28%	–	–
Oborishte clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.3 10.3 6.5 2.8 1 10.1 12.4 7.9 3.4 2 6.3 7.8 4.9 2.1 3 2.7 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slivnishki geroy down, Oborishte across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slivnishki geroy at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Oborishte away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Slivnishki geroy, 1.28 for Oborishte. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~OBO 3–0 SLI · SLI 3–2 OBO · OBO 4–1 SLI · SLI 0–0 OBO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 13 Sept

SLIVNISHKI GEROY

DDLWWD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

OBORISHTE

WWWDLW1–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	13	+21	30
2	Oborishte	12	+13	25
3	Bansko	11	+9	25
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	11	+8	20
6	Septemvri Sofia II	12	+1	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	13	−3	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	13	−1	18
9	Slavia Sofia II	12	+2	16
10	CSKA Sofia III	12	+2	16
11	Botev Ihtiman	11	+1	16
12	Septemvri Simitli	12	−4	14
13	Chavdar Etropole	13	−15	14
14	Levski Sofia II	12	−4	12
15	Belasitsa	13	−6	12
16	Natsional Sofia	12	−6	10
17	Kyustendil	11	−6	10
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7