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Slivnishki geroy v Natsional Sofia

Slivnishki geroy

2–0Full time

Natsional Sofia

Third League - Southwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Slivnishki geroy 2–0 Natsional Sofia SLIVNISHKI GEROY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slivnishki geroy win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Slivnishki geroy win49%

Draw24%

Natsional Sofia win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slivnishki geroy winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Slivnishki geroy a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slivnishki geroy win	49%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Natsional Sofia win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy or draw	73%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy clean sheet	31%	–	–
Natsional Sofia clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.9 6.9 4.0 1 9.8 10.9 6.5 2.6 2 8.0 9.1 5.4 2.2 3 4.6 5.2 3.1 4 2.0 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slivnishki geroy down, Natsional Sofia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,814 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Slivnishki geroy at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Natsional Sofia away: 1.20 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Slivnishki geroy, 1.19 for Natsional Sofia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest

SLIVNISHKI GEROY

WLLDDL2–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

NATSIONAL SOFIA

DDLWDL3–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	10	+16	23
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	9	+4	16
6	Balkan Botevgrad	10	−1	16
7	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
8	Kostinbrod	10	+1	15
9	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
10	CSKA Sofia III	9	+1	12
11	Levski Sofia II	10	0	12
12	Septemvri Simitli	10	−4	12
13	Slivnishki geroy	10	−4	11
14	Belasitsa	10	−4	10
15	Chavdar Etropole	10	−11	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	10	−6	7
18	Pirin Razlog	10	−16	7