Slivnishki geroy v FK Minyor Pernik prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Slivnishki geroyDrawFK Minyor Pernik

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FK Minyor Pernik 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Minyor Pernik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slivnishki geroy 22%, draw 23%, FK Minyor Pernik 54%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Slivnishki geroy v FK Minyor PernikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Slivnishki geroy win22%

Draw23%

FK Minyor Pernik win54%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slivnishki geroy

FK Minyor Pernik

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 18 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk minyor pernik winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make FK Minyor Pernik a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slivnishki geroy v FK Minyor Pernik~~0.96 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 29~~8 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Minyor Pernik win

Published at 53%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slivnishki geroy win	22%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
FK Minyor Pernik win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy or draw	46%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy clean sheet	19%	–	–
FK Minyor Pernik clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.3 12.2 10.0 5.8 2.7 1 7.1 10.8 9.0 5.1 2.3 2 3.4 5.4 4.3 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slivnishki geroy down, FK Minyor Pernik across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slivnishki geroy at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FK Minyor Pernik away: 1.67 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Slivnishki geroy, 1.70 for FK Minyor Pernik. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SLI 4–2 FKM · FKM 5–1 SLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept

SLIVNISHKI GEROY

LDDLWW0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

FK MINYOR PERNIK

WWWWWW2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7