Slavia Sofia II v Strumska Slava prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Slavia Sofia II 1–1 Strumska Slava SLAVIA SOFIA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Slavia Sofia II win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slavia Sofia II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavia Sofia II 47%, draw 21%, Strumska Slava 31%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Slavia Sofia II v Strumska SlavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Slavia Sofia II win47%

Draw21%

Strumska Slava win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavia Sofia II

Strumska Slava

6Days since last match21

Last match: 18 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 3 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slavia sofia ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Slavia Sofia II a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slavia Sofia II v Strumska Slava~~1.95 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 19~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slavia Sofia II win

Published at 46%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slavia Sofia II win	47%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Strumska Slava win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Slavia Sofia II or draw	69%	–	–
Slavia Sofia II clean sheet	22%	–	–
Strumska Slava clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 5.0 3.7 1 6.3 9.0 6.9 3.6 2 5.8 8.6 6.6 3.4 3 3.8 5.6 4.2 2.2 4 2.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slavia Sofia II down, Strumska Slava across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slavia Sofia II at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Strumska Slava away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Slavia Sofia II, 1.54 for Strumska Slava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SLA 1–0 STR · STR 3–2 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

SLAVIA SOFIA II

LWLWLW2–3 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 1–5 · 2–1

STRUMSKA SLAVA

WLWLWL3–0 · 2–5 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7