Slavia Sofia II v Kyustendil prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Slavia Sofia IIDrawKyustendil

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Slavia Sofia II 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slavia Sofia II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavia Sofia II 57%, draw 21%, Kyustendil 22%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Slavia Sofia II v KyustendilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Slavia Sofia II win57%

Draw21%

Kyustendil win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavia Sofia II

Kyustendil

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Slavia Sofia II	12	+2	16
17	Kyustendil	11	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slavia sofia ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Slavia Sofia II a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slavia Sofia II v Kyustendil~~2.08 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 10~~9 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slavia Sofia II win	57%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Kyustendil win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Slavia Sofia II or draw	78%	–	–
Slavia Sofia II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Kyustendil clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 4.1 4.8 2.8 1 8.1 9.3 5.6 2.3 2 8.2 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 5.7 6.4 3.8 4 3.0 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slavia Sofia II down, Kyustendil across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 5.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slavia Sofia II at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kyustendil away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Slavia Sofia II, 1.19 for Kyustendil. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~5.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SLA 8–1 KYU · KYU 4–3 SLA · SLA 2–4 KYU · KYU 5–1 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

SLAVIA SOFIA II

WLWLWD4–0 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1

KYUSTENDIL

DLLLDD1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	13	+21	30
2	Oborishte	12	+13	25
3	Bansko	11	+9	25
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	11	+8	20
6	Septemvri Sofia II	12	+1	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	13	−3	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	13	−1	18
9	Slavia Sofia II	12	+2	16
10	CSKA Sofia III	12	+2	16
11	Botev Ihtiman	11	+1	16
12	Septemvri Simitli	12	−4	14
13	Chavdar Etropole	13	−15	14
14	Levski Sofia II	12	−4	12
15	Belasitsa	13	−6	12
16	Natsional Sofia	12	−6	10
17	Kyustendil	11	−6	10
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7