Septemvri Sofia II v Strumska Slava prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Septemvri Sofia IIDrawStrumska Slava

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Septemvri Sofia II 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Sofia II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Septemvri Sofia II 43%, draw 25%, Strumska Slava 32%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Septemvri Sofia II v Strumska SlavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Septemvri Sofia II win43%

Draw25%

Strumska Slava win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Septemvri Sofia II

Strumska Slava

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri sofia ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Septemvri Sofia II a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Septemvri Sofia II v Strumska Slava~~1.55 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 19~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Sofia II win	43%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Strumska Slava win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II or draw	68%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II clean sheet	28%	–	–
Strumska Slava clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.0 7.7 4.9 2.2 1 9.1 11.4 7.4 3.3 2 6.9 8.7 5.7 2.5 3 3.6 4.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Sofia II down, Strumska Slava across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Septemvri Sofia II at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Strumska Slava away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Septemvri Sofia II, 1.30 for Strumska Slava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SEP 2–2 STR · STR 4–1 SEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA II

WLWWLL2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1

STRUMSKA SLAVA

LWLWLD2–5 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7