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Septemvri Sofia II v Pirin Razlog

Septemvri Sofia II

2–1Full time

Pirin Razlog

Third League - Southwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Septemvri Sofia II 2–1 Pirin Razlog SEPTEMVRI SOFIA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Septemvri Sofia II win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.198

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Septemvri Sofia II win64%

Draw21%

Pirin Razlog win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri sofia ii winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Septemvri Sofia II a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Sofia II win	64%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Pirin Razlog win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II or draw	84%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II clean sheet	44%	–	–
Pirin Razlog clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 5.2 2.2 1 11.8 9.6 4.1 2 11.4 9.4 4.0 3 7.6 6.2 2.6 4 3.9 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Sofia II down, Pirin Razlog across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,814 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Septemvri Sofia II at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pirin Razlog away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Septemvri Sofia II, 0.84 for Pirin Razlog. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SEP 3–0 PIR · PIR 3–1 SEP · PIR 3–0 SEP · SEP 0–5 PIR

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA II

LLWWLW1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

PIRIN RAZLOG

LDWWLL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	10	+16	23
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	9	+4	16
6	Balkan Botevgrad	10	−1	16
7	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
8	Kostinbrod	10	+1	15
9	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
10	CSKA Sofia III	9	+1	12
11	Levski Sofia II	10	0	12
12	Septemvri Simitli	10	−4	12
13	Slivnishki geroy	10	−4	11
14	Belasitsa	10	−4	10
15	Chavdar Etropole	10	−11	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	10	−6	7
18	Pirin Razlog	10	−16	7