Septemvri Sofia II v Bansko prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Septemvri Sofia IIDrawBansko

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Septemvri Sofia II 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Sofia II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Septemvri Sofia II 49%, draw 25%, Bansko 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Septemvri Sofia II v BanskoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Septemvri Sofia II win49%

Draw25%

Bansko win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Septemvri Sofia II

Bansko

6Days since last match17

Last match: 18 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 7 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri sofia ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Septemvri Sofia II a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Septemvri Sofia II v Bansko~~1.52 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 22~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Septemvri Sofia II win

Published at 50%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Sofia II win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Bansko win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II or draw	74%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II clean sheet	37%	–	–
Bansko clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.2 8.4 4.1 1 12.4 11.8 6.0 2.1 2 9.2 9.0 4.5 3 4.7 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Sofia II down, Bansko across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Septemvri Sofia II at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bansko away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Septemvri Sofia II, 1.00 for Bansko. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–1 SEP · SEP 3–2 BAN · BAN 4–1 SEP · SEP 0–1 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA II

WWLWWL3–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

BANSKO

WLLWWW4–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7