Septemvri Simitli v Slavia Sofia II prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Septemvri SimitliDrawSlavia Sofia II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Septemvri Simitli 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Simitli are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Septemvri Simitli 44%, draw 24%, Slavia Sofia II 31%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Septemvri Simitli v Slavia Sofia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Septemvri Simitli win44%

Draw24%

Slavia Sofia II win31%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

VenueNational Stadium Vasil Levski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Septemvri Simitli

Slavia Sofia II

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri simitli winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Septemvri Simitli a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Septemvri Simitli v Slavia Sofia II~~1.61 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 15~~12 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Septemvri Simitli win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Simitli win	44%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Slavia Sofia II win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Septemvri Simitli or draw	69%	–	–
Septemvri Simitli clean sheet	28%	–	–
Slavia Sofia II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 7.3 4.7 2.1 1 8.9 11.2 7.2 3.2 2 7.0 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 3.8 4.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Simitli down, Slavia Sofia II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Septemvri Simitli at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia Sofia II away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Septemvri Simitli, 1.31 for Slavia Sofia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SLA 3–1 SEP · SEP 2–0 SLA · SLA 2–2 SEP · SEP 1–0 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept

SEPTEMVRI SIMITLI

LLLWDD0–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

SLAVIA SOFIA II

WLWLWD4–0 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7