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Septemvri Simitli v Belasitsa

Septemvri Simitli

1–1Full time

Belasitsa

Third League - Southwest · SAT 10 OCT · National Stadium Vasil Levski

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Septemvri Simitli 1–1 Belasitsa SEPTEMVRI SIMITLI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Septemvri Simitli win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.916

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Septemvri Simitli win48%

Draw23%

Belasitsa win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · National Stadium Vasil Levski

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri simitli winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Septemvri Simitli a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Simitli win	48%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Belasitsa win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Septemvri Simitli or draw	70%	–	–
Septemvri Simitli clean sheet	27%	–	–
Belasitsa clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.6 6.2 4.0 1 8.1 10.1 6.8 3.1 2 7.0 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 4.2 5.3 3.5 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Simitli down, Belasitsa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,814 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Septemvri Simitli at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Belasitsa away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Septemvri Simitli, 1.36 for Belasitsa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest

SEPTEMVRI SIMITLI

DDLLLW3–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–1

BELASITSA

LWLLLL1–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	10	+16	23
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	9	+4	16
6	Balkan Botevgrad	10	−1	16
7	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
8	Kostinbrod	10	+1	15
9	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
10	CSKA Sofia III	9	+1	12
11	Levski Sofia II	10	0	12
12	Septemvri Simitli	10	−4	12
13	Slivnishki geroy	10	−4	11
14	Belasitsa	10	−4	10
15	Chavdar Etropole	10	−11	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	10	−6	7
18	Pirin Razlog	10	−16	7