Pirin Razlog v Slivnishki geroy prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Pirin Razlog 1–2 Slivnishki geroy PIRIN RAZLOG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pirin Razlog win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.702

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pirin Razlog are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pirin Razlog 42%, draw 25%, Slivnishki geroy 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Pirin Razlog v Slivnishki geroyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pirin Razlog win42%

Draw25%

Slivnishki geroy win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pirin Razlog

Slivnishki geroy

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	−2	14
18	Pirin Razlog	11	−17	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pirin razlog winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Pirin Razlog a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pirin Razlog v Slivnishki geroy~~1.45 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~18 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pirin Razlog win	42%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Pirin Razlog or draw	68%	–	–
Pirin Razlog clean sheet	30%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 8.6 5.2 2.2 1 10.1 11.8 7.3 3.0 2 7.2 8.6 5.2 2.2 3 3.5 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pirin Razlog down, Slivnishki geroy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,820 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pirin Razlog at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Slivnishki geroy away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Pirin Razlog, 1.23 for Slivnishki geroy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PIR 1–3 SLI · SLI 1–0 PIR · PIR 2–2 SLI · SLI 3–1 PIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

PIRIN RAZLOG

DWWLLL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 1–2

SLIVNISHKI GEROY

LLDDLW2–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	−2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	−4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	−16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	−17	7