Pirin Razlog v Balkan Botevgrad prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pirin RazlogDrawBalkan Botevgrad

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Balkan Botevgrad 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Balkan Botevgrad are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pirin Razlog 35%, draw 25%, Balkan Botevgrad 40%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Pirin Razlog v Balkan BotevgradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Pirin Razlog win35%

Draw25%

Balkan Botevgrad win40%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pirin Razlog

Balkan Botevgrad

6Days since last match11

Last match: 22 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · balkan botevgrad winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 01:36 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Balkan Botevgrad a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pirin Razlog v Balkan Botevgrad~~1.30 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 19~~18 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Balkan Botevgrad win

Published at 38%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pirin Razlog win	35%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Balkan Botevgrad win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Pirin Razlog or draw	60%	–	–
Pirin Razlog clean sheet	25%	–	–
Balkan Botevgrad clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.8 9.7 6.6 3.2 1 9.0 11.8 8.3 3.9 2 5.7 7.7 5.3 2.5 3 2.5 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pirin Razlog down, Balkan Botevgrad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pirin Razlog at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Balkan Botevgrad away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Pirin Razlog, 1.41 for Balkan Botevgrad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAL 1–1 PIR · PIR 0–1 BAL · BAL 2–0 PIR · PIR 4–0 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept

PIRIN RAZLOG

WLLLLL1–0 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–5

BALKAN BOTEVGRAD

LDWWWL0–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7