Oborishte v Slavia Sofia II prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Oborishte 1–2 Slavia Sofia II OBORISHTE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oborishte win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.974

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oborishte are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oborishte 57%, draw 21%, Slavia Sofia II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Oborishte v Slavia Sofia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Oborishte win57%

Draw21%

Slavia Sofia II win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oborishte

Slavia Sofia II

11Days since last match11

Last match: 7 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
13	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oborishte winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Oborishte a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oborishte v Slavia Sofia II~~1.97 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 12~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oborishte win	57%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Slavia Sofia II win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Oborishte or draw	78%	–	–
Oborishte clean sheet	33%	–	–
Slavia Sofia II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.7 5.4 3.0 1 9.2 9.8 5.6 2.1 2 8.7 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.7 6.2 3.5 4 2.9 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oborishte down, Slavia Sofia II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,823 Third League - Southwest matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.88 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oborishte at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia Sofia II away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Oborishte, 1.13 for Slavia Sofia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.88

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SLA 1–1 OBO · OBO 2–1 SLA · OBO 3–0 SLA · SLA 2–4 OBO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

OBORISHTE

DWWWWD0–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

SLAVIA SOFIA II

WLWLWL1–0 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
10	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
11	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
12	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
13	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	12	−18	7