Oborishte v Septemvri Sofia II prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OborishteDrawSeptemvri Sofia II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Oborishte 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oborishte are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oborishte 52%, draw 24%, Septemvri Sofia II 23%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Oborishte v Septemvri Sofia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Oborishte win52%

Draw24%

Septemvri Sofia II win23%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oborishte

Septemvri Sofia II

10Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oborishte winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Oborishte a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oborishte v Septemvri Sofia II~~1.62 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 19~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oborishte win	52%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Oborishte or draw	77%	–	–
Oborishte clean sheet	38%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 7.7 7.6 3.6 1 12.4 11.4 5.6 2 9.7 9.2 4.5 3 5.3 5.0 2.4 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oborishte down, Septemvri Sofia II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oborishte at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Sofia II away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Oborishte, 0.97 for Septemvri Sofia II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SEP 2–0 OBO · OBO 2–0 SEP · SEP 3–2 OBO · OBO 1–0 SEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

OBORISHTE

WWWWDL4–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA II

WWLWWL3–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7