Natsional Sofia v Kostinbrod prediction · Third League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Natsional Sofia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Natsional Sofia 43%, draw 25%, Kostinbrod 32%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Natsional Sofia v KostinbrodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Natsional Sofia win43%

Draw25%

Kostinbrod win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Natsional Sofia

Kostinbrod

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · natsional sofia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Natsional Sofia a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Natsional Sofia v Kostinbrod~~1.50 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 18~~17 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Natsional Sofia win	43%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Kostinbrod win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Natsional Sofia or draw	68%	–	–
Natsional Sofia clean sheet	29%	–	–
Kostinbrod clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.7 8.3 5.1 2.1 1 9.9 11.6 7.2 3.1 2 7.2 8.6 5.3 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Natsional Sofia down, Kostinbrod across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,820 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Natsional Sofia at home: 1.20 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Kostinbrod away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Natsional Sofia, 1.25 for Kostinbrod. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

NATSIONAL SOFIA

DLWDLL1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

KOSTINBROD

LWWLLW1–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	−2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	−4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	−16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	−17	7