Natsional Sofia v CSKA Sofia III prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Natsional SofiaDrawCSKA Sofia III

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Natsional Sofia 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Natsional Sofia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Natsional Sofia 39%, draw 26%, CSKA Sofia III 34%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Natsional Sofia v CSKA Sofia IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Natsional Sofia win39%

Draw26%

CSKA Sofia III win34%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Natsional Sofia

CSKA Sofia III

18Days since last match11

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southwest

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · natsional sofia winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Natsional Sofia a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Natsional Sofia v CSKA Sofia III~~1.31 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~17 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Natsional Sofia win	39%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
CSKA Sofia III win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Natsional Sofia or draw	66%	–	–
Natsional Sofia clean sheet	31%	–	–
CSKA Sofia III clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.3 10.1 5.9 2.4 1 10.8 12.2 7.4 3.1 2 6.9 8.0 4.8 3 3.1 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Natsional Sofia down, CSKA Sofia III across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Natsional Sofia at home: 1.20 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). CSKA Sofia III away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Natsional Sofia, 1.21 for CSKA Sofia III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

NATSIONAL SOFIA

DLWDLL1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

CSKA SOFIA III

WDDWLW3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7