Levski Sofia II v Septemvri Simitli prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Levski Sofia IIDrawSeptemvri Simitli

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Levski Sofia II 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levski Sofia II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levski Sofia II 41%, draw 29%, Septemvri Simitli 30%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Levski Sofia II v Septemvri SimitliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Levski Sofia II win41%

Draw29%

Septemvri Simitli win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levski Sofia II

Septemvri Simitli

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levski sofia ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Levski Sofia II a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levski Sofia II v Septemvri Simitli~~1.22 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levski Sofia II win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Septemvri Simitli win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Levski Sofia II or draw	70%	–	–
Levski Sofia II clean sheet	38%	–	–
Septemvri Simitli clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.3 10.9 5.4 1 13.4 12.8 6.4 2.2 2 8.1 7.8 3.9 3 3.4 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levski Sofia II down, Septemvri Simitli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levski Sofia II at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Simitli away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Levski Sofia II, 0.99 for Septemvri Simitli. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LEV 1–1 SEP · SEP 0–0 LEV · SEP 1–0 LEV · LEV 1–0 SEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept

LEVSKI SOFIA II

DWDWLL0–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

SEPTEMVRI SIMITLI

LLLWDD0–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7