Kyustendil v Strumska Slava prediction · Third League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Kyustendil just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kyustendil 40%, draw 22%, Strumska Slava 37%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Kyustendil v Strumska SlavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · postponed, not graded

Kyustendil win40%

Draw22%

Strumska Slava win37%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kyustendil

Strumska Slava

14Days since last match18

Last match: 7 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 3 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kyustendil winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · postponed, not graded

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Kyustendil a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kyustendil v Strumska Slava~~1.69 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~16 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kyustendil win	40%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Strumska Slava win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Kyustendil or draw	63%	–	–
Kyustendil clean sheet	20%	–	–
Strumska Slava clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 6.2 4.9 2.7 1 6.5 9.7 7.8 4.3 2 5.3 8.2 6.5 3.5 3 3.0 4.7 3.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kyustendil down, Strumska Slava across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,823 Third League - Southwest matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kyustendil at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Strumska Slava away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Kyustendil, 1.62 for Strumska Slava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STR 3–1 KYU · KYU 3–0 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

KYUSTENDIL

WDLLLD3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2

STRUMSKA SLAVA

WLWLWL3–0 · 2–5 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	−2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	−4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	−16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	−17	7