Kyustendil v Botev Ihtiman prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KyustendilDrawBotev Ihtiman

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kyustendil 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kyustendil are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kyustendil 46%, draw 24%, Botev Ihtiman 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Kyustendil v Botev IhtimanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kyustendil win46%

Draw24%

Botev Ihtiman win30%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kyustendil

Botev Ihtiman

21Days since last match21

Last match: 7 Oct · Third League - Southwest

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kyustendil winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Kyustendil a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kyustendil v Botev Ihtiman~~1.62 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 15~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kyustendil win	46%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Botev Ihtiman win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Kyustendil or draw	70%	–	–
Kyustendil clean sheet	30%	–	–
Botev Ihtiman clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.9 7.4 4.5 1 9.5 11.1 6.9 2.9 2 7.5 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 4.1 4.9 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kyustendil down, Botev Ihtiman across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kyustendil at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Botev Ihtiman away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Kyustendil, 1.24 for Botev Ihtiman. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KYU 0–2 BOT · BOT 3–1 KYU · KYU 4–1 BOT · BOT 1–2 KYU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

KYUSTENDIL

WDLLLD3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2

BOTEV IHTIMAN

WWWLLL2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7