Kostinbrod v Pirin Razlog prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 01:30

Kostinbrod 5–1 Pirin Razlog KOSTINBROD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kostinbrod win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.239

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kostinbrod are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kostinbrod 60%, draw 22%, Pirin Razlog 18%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Kostinbrod v Pirin RazlogBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kostinbrod win60%

Draw22%

Pirin Razlog win18%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kostinbrod

Pirin Razlog

12Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
18	Pirin Razlog	12	−18	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kostinbrod winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Kostinbrod a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kostinbrod v Pirin Razlog~~1.91 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 7~~7 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kostinbrod win

Published at 59%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kostinbrod win	60%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Pirin Razlog win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Kostinbrod or draw	82%	–	–
Kostinbrod clean sheet	40%	–	–
Pirin Razlog clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 5.8 2.6 1 11.5 10.1 4.8 2 10.6 9.5 4.4 3 6.7 6.0 2.8 4 3.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kostinbrod down, Pirin Razlog across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,825 Third League - Southwest matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kostinbrod at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pirin Razlog away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Kostinbrod, 0.92 for Pirin Razlog. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PIR 2–1 KOS · KOS 2–0 PIR · KOS 1–0 PIR · PIR 1–1 KOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

KOSTINBROD

LWWLLW1–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 5–0

PIRIN RAZLOG

WWLLLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	12	−18	7