Kostinbrod v Bansko prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KostinbrodDrawBansko

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kostinbrod 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kostinbrod are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kostinbrod 46%, draw 26%, Bansko 28%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kostinbrod v BanskoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kostinbrod win46%

Draw26%

Bansko win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kostinbrod

Bansko

9Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kostinbrod winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Kostinbrod a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kostinbrod v Bansko~~1.48 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 22~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kostinbrod win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Bansko win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Kostinbrod or draw	72%	–	–
Kostinbrod clean sheet	34%	–	–
Bansko clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.9 8.5 4.6 1 11.4 12.0 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 8.8 4.8 3 4.1 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kostinbrod down, Bansko across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kostinbrod at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bansko away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Kostinbrod, 1.09 for Bansko. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KOS 2–1 BAN · BAN 2–1 KOS · BAN 3–2 KOS · KOS 1–3 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

KOSTINBROD

WWLLWW3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 5–1

BANSKO

LLWWWW0–4 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7