FK Minyor Pernik v Septemvri Sofia II prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

FK Minyor Pernik 3–0 Septemvri Sofia II FK MINYOR PERNIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Minyor Pernik win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.165

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Minyor Pernik are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Minyor Pernik 67%, draw 20%, Septemvri Sofia II 13%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on FK Minyor Pernik v Septemvri Sofia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FK Minyor Pernik win67%

Draw20%

Septemvri Sofia II win13%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

VenueStadion Minyor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Minyor Pernik

Septemvri Sofia II

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk minyor pernik winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make FK Minyor Pernik a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Minyor Pernik v Septemvri Sofia II~~2.05 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 19~~1 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Minyor Pernik win	67%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
FK Minyor Pernik or draw	87%	–	–
FK Minyor Pernik clean sheet	48%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 6.5 4.9 1 12.9 9.0 3.5 2 12.6 9.0 3.4 3 8.6 6.1 2.3 4 4.6 3.2 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Minyor Pernik down, Septemvri Sofia II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,823 Third League - Southwest matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Minyor Pernik at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Sofia II away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for FK Minyor Pernik, 0.74 for Septemvri Sofia II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FKM 1–0 SEP · SEP 1–4 FKM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

FK MINYOR PERNIK

WWWWWW5–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 2–0

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA II

LWWLWW1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
10	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
11	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
12	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
13	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	12	−18	7