FK Minyor Pernik v Kostinbrod prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FK Minyor PernikDrawKostinbrod

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FK Minyor Pernik 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Minyor Pernik are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Minyor Pernik 71%, draw 18%, Kostinbrod 11%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on FK Minyor Pernik v KostinbrodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FK Minyor Pernik win71%

Draw18%

Kostinbrod win11%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

VenueStadion Minyor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Minyor Pernik

Kostinbrod

4Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 22 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk minyor pernik winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 01:54 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make FK Minyor Pernik a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Minyor Pernik v Kostinbrod~~2.21 – 0.70

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 30 v 21~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Minyor Pernik win

Published at 73%, 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Minyor Pernik win	71%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Kostinbrod win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
FK Minyor Pernik or draw	89%	–	–
FK Minyor Pernik clean sheet	51%	–	–
Kostinbrod clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.1%

0123450 5.9 4.1 1 12.3 8.3 3.0 2 13.1 8.8 3.2 3 9.6 6.3 2.3 4 5.4 3.5 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Minyor Pernik down, Kostinbrod across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Minyor Pernik at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kostinbrod away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for FK Minyor Pernik, 0.70 for Kostinbrod. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KOS 1–3 FKM · FKM 1–0 KOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept

FK MINYOR PERNIK

WWWWWD2–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

KOSTINBROD

WWLLWW3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	13	+21	30
2	Oborishte	12	+13	25
3	Bansko	11	+9	25
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	11	+8	20
6	Septemvri Sofia II	12	+1	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	13	−3	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	13	−1	18
9	Slavia Sofia II	12	+2	16
10	CSKA Sofia III	12	+2	16
11	Botev Ihtiman	11	+1	16
12	Septemvri Simitli	12	−4	14
13	Chavdar Etropole	13	−15	14
14	Levski Sofia II	12	−4	12
15	Belasitsa	13	−6	12
16	Natsional Sofia	12	−6	10
17	Kyustendil	11	−6	10
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7