CSKA Sofia III v Chavdar Etropole prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

CSKA Sofia III 0–0 Chavdar Etropole CSKA SOFIA III WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSKA Sofia III win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.013

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSKA Sofia III are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSKA Sofia III 60%, draw 21%, Chavdar Etropole 19%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on CSKA Sofia III v Chavdar EtropoleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

CSKA Sofia III win60%

Draw21%

Chavdar Etropole win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSKA Sofia III

Chavdar Etropole

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cska sofia iii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make CSKA Sofia III a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSKA Sofia III v Chavdar Etropole~~1.96 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~10 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA Sofia III win	60%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Chavdar Etropole win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
CSKA Sofia III or draw	81%	–	–
CSKA Sofia III clean sheet	38%	–	–
Chavdar Etropole clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.7%

0123450 5.6 5.6 2.7 1 10.7 9.9 4.9 2 9.9 9.5 4.6 3 6.5 6.1 3.0 4 3.3 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA Sofia III down, Chavdar Etropole across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

CSKA Sofia III at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chavdar Etropole away: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for CSKA Sofia III, 0.98 for Chavdar Etropole. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

CSKA SOFIA III

WDDWLW3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

CHAVDAR ETROPOLE

LLWWLW0–4 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7