Chavdar Etropole v Natsional Sofia prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Chavdar EtropoleDrawNatsional Sofia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chavdar Etropole 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chavdar Etropole are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chavdar Etropole 48%, draw 22%, Natsional Sofia 30%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Chavdar Etropole v Natsional SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Chavdar Etropole win48%

Draw22%

Natsional Sofia win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chavdar Etropole

Natsional Sofia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Chavdar Etropole	13	−15	14
16	Natsional Sofia	12	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chavdar etropole winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Chavdar Etropole a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chavdar Etropole v Natsional Sofia~~1.86 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~13 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chavdar Etropole win	48%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Natsional Sofia win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Chavdar Etropole or draw	70%	–	–
Chavdar Etropole clean sheet	25%	–	–
Natsional Sofia clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.2 5.6 3.9 1 7.4 9.7 6.7 3.2 2 6.6 8.8 6.0 2.9 3 4.1 5.4 3.8 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chavdar Etropole down, Natsional Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Chavdar Etropole at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Natsional Sofia away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Chavdar Etropole, 1.42 for Natsional Sofia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept

CHAVDAR ETROPOLE

LWWLWD1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 0–0

NATSIONAL SOFIA

LWDLLW2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	13	+21	30
2	Oborishte	12	+13	25
3	Bansko	11	+9	25
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	11	+8	20
6	Septemvri Sofia II	12	+1	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	13	−3	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	13	−1	18
9	Slavia Sofia II	12	+2	16
10	CSKA Sofia III	12	+2	16
11	Botev Ihtiman	11	+1	16
12	Septemvri Simitli	12	−4	14
13	Chavdar Etropole	13	−15	14
14	Levski Sofia II	12	−4	12
15	Belasitsa	13	−6	12
16	Natsional Sofia	12	−6	10
17	Kyustendil	11	−6	10
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7