Chavdar Etropole v Balkan Botevgrad prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Chavdar Etropole 1–0 Balkan Botevgrad CHAVDAR ETROPOLE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chavdar Etropole win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.535

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chavdar Etropole are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chavdar Etropole 41%, draw 23%, Balkan Botevgrad 36%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Chavdar Etropole v Balkan BotevgradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chavdar Etropole win41%

Draw23%

Balkan Botevgrad win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chavdar Etropole

Balkan Botevgrad

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	0	19
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	−16	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chavdar etropole winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Chavdar Etropole a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chavdar Etropole v Balkan Botevgrad~~1.63 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 19~~15 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chavdar Etropole win	41%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Balkan Botevgrad win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Chavdar Etropole or draw	64%	–	–
Chavdar Etropole clean sheet	23%	–	–
Balkan Botevgrad clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.5 6.8 5.0 2.6 1 7.3 10.3 7.7 4.0 2 5.7 8.3 6.2 3.2 3 3.2 4.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chavdar Etropole down, Balkan Botevgrad across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,820 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chavdar Etropole at home: 2.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Balkan Botevgrad away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Chavdar Etropole, 1.53 for Balkan Botevgrad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHA 2–0 BAL · BAL 3–2 CHA · CHA 3–1 BAL · CHA 3–1 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

CHAVDAR ETROPOLE

LLLWWL1–4 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–5

BALKAN BOTEVGRAD

WLDWWW1–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	−2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	−4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	−16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	−17	7