Botev Ihtiman v Septemvri Simitli prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Botev Ihtiman 2–2 Septemvri Simitli BOTEV IHTIMAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Botev Ihtiman win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.887

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Botev Ihtiman are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Botev Ihtiman 51%, draw 25%, Septemvri Simitli 24%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Botev Ihtiman v Septemvri SimitliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Botev Ihtiman win51%

Draw25%

Septemvri Simitli win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Botev Ihtiman

Septemvri Simitli

17Days since last match14

Last match: 7 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · botev ihtiman winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Botev Ihtiman a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Botev Ihtiman v Septemvri Simitli~~1.59 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botev Ihtiman win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Septemvri Simitli win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Botev Ihtiman or draw	76%	–	–
Botev Ihtiman clean sheet	38%	–	–
Septemvri Simitli clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 7.8 7.8 3.8 1 12.3 11.5 5.8 2 9.5 9.1 4.5 3 5.1 4.9 2.4 4 2.1 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botev Ihtiman down, Septemvri Simitli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botev Ihtiman at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Simitli away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Botev Ihtiman, 0.99 for Septemvri Simitli. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BOT 1–0 SEP · SEP 0–2 BOT · BOT 2–2 SEP · SEP 1–2 BOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

BOTEV IHTIMAN

WWWLLL2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

SEPTEMVRI SIMITLI

DLLLWD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7