Botev Ihtiman v Oborishte prediction · Third League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Botev Ihtiman are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Botev Ihtiman 41%, draw 26%, Oborishte 33%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Botev Ihtiman v OborishteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · postponed, not graded

Botev Ihtiman win41%

Draw26%

Oborishte win33%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Botev Ihtiman

Oborishte

14Days since last match14

Last match: 7 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · botev ihtiman winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · postponed, not graded

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Botev Ihtiman a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Botev Ihtiman v Oborishte~~1.39 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 22~~8 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botev Ihtiman win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Oborishte win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Botev Ihtiman or draw	67%	–	–
Botev Ihtiman clean sheet	30%	–	–
Oborishte clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 9.3 5.5 2.3 1 10.6 12.0 7.3 3.0 2 7.2 8.4 5.0 2.1 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botev Ihtiman down, Oborishte across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,823 Third League - Southwest matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botev Ihtiman at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Oborishte away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Botev Ihtiman, 1.21 for Oborishte. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OBO 0–2 BOT · BOT 1–1 OBO · BOT 0–3 OBO · OBO 0–0 BOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

BOTEV IHTIMAN

WWWLLL2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

OBORISHTE

DWWWWD0–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	−2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	−4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	−16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	−17	7