Belasitsa v CSKA Sofia III prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Belasitsa 0–2 CSKA Sofia III BELASITSA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Belasitsa win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Belasitsa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Belasitsa 50%, draw 23%, CSKA Sofia III 26%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Belasitsa v CSKA Sofia IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Belasitsa win50%

Draw23%

CSKA Sofia III win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

VenueStadion Tsar Samuil

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Belasitsa

CSKA Sofia III

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	0	12
14	Belasitsa	11	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · belasitsa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Belasitsa a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Belasitsa v CSKA Sofia III~~1.73 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Belasitsa win	50%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
CSKA Sofia III win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Belasitsa or draw	74%	–	–
Belasitsa clean sheet	32%	–	–
CSKA Sofia III clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.8 6.8 3.9 1 9.8 10.8 6.3 2.5 2 8.1 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 4.7 5.3 3.1 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Belasitsa down, CSKA Sofia III across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,820 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Belasitsa at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). CSKA Sofia III away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Belasitsa, 1.17 for CSKA Sofia III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

BELASITSA

WLLLLD3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

CSKA SOFIA III

LWDDWL1–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	+18	26
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	+5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	+6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	−2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	−4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	−16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	−17	7