Belasitsa v Chavdar Etropole prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BelasitsaDrawChavdar Etropole

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Belasitsa 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Belasitsa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Belasitsa 60%, draw 18%, Chavdar Etropole 21%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Belasitsa v Chavdar EtropoleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Belasitsa win60%

Draw18%

Chavdar Etropole win21%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

VenueStadion Tsar Samuil

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Belasitsa

Chavdar Etropole

11Days since last match11

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · belasitsa winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Belasitsa a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Belasitsa v Chavdar Etropole~~2.48 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~15 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Belasitsa win	60%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Chavdar Etropole win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Belasitsa or draw	79%	–	–
Belasitsa clean sheet	26%	–	–
Chavdar Etropole clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.6 3.6 2.3 1 5.9 7.4 5.0 2.3 2 6.5 8.4 5.7 2.6 3 5.1 6.6 4.4 2.1 4 3.2 4.1 2.8 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Belasitsa down, Chavdar Etropole across0–5 goals a side shown (93.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Belasitsa at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chavdar Etropole away: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.48 goals for Belasitsa, 1.37 for Chavdar Etropole. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–0 BEL · CHA 1–1 BEL · BEL 2–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 12 Sept

BELASITSA

LLLLDL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

CHAVDAR ETROPOLE

LLWWLW0–4 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7