Bansko v Slivnishki geroy prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BanskoDrawSlivnishki geroy

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bansko 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bansko are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bansko 54%, draw 24%, Slivnishki geroy 21%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Bansko v Slivnishki geroyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bansko win54%

Draw24%

Slivnishki geroy win21%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bansko

Slivnishki geroy

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bansko winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 01:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Bansko a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bansko v Slivnishki geroy~~1.65 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 17~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bansko win

Published at 55%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bansko win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Bansko or draw	79%	–	–
Bansko clean sheet	40%	–	–
Slivnishki geroy clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.0 7.2 3.3 1 12.7 11.4 5.3 2 10.3 9.2 4.3 3 5.7 5.1 2.3 4 2.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bansko down, Slivnishki geroy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,834 Third League - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bansko at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Slivnishki geroy away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Bansko, 0.92 for Slivnishki geroy. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SLI 4–0 BAN · BAN 2–1 SLI · SLI 0–1 BAN · BAN 3–0 SLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

BANSKO

LLWWWW0–4 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

SLIVNISHKI GEROY

DDLWWD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7