Balkan Botevgrad v Natsional Sofia prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Balkan BotevgradDrawNatsional Sofia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Balkan Botevgrad 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Balkan Botevgrad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Balkan Botevgrad 57%, draw 22%, Natsional Sofia 21%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Balkan Botevgrad v Natsional SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Balkan Botevgrad win57%

Draw22%

Natsional Sofia win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Balkan Botevgrad

Natsional Sofia

7Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southwest

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · balkan botevgrad winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Balkan Botevgrad a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Balkan Botevgrad v Natsional Sofia~~1.86 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 7~~7 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Balkan Botevgrad win

Published at 58%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Balkan Botevgrad win	57%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Natsional Sofia win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Balkan Botevgrad or draw	79%	–	–
Balkan Botevgrad clean sheet	38%	–	–
Natsional Sofia clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 6.0 6.1 3.0 1 11.0 10.3 5.2 2 9.8 9.5 4.7 3 6.1 5.9 2.9 4 2.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Balkan Botevgrad down, Natsional Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Third League - Southwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Balkan Botevgrad at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Natsional Sofia away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Balkan Botevgrad, 1.00 for Natsional Sofia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

BALKAN BOTEVGRAD

LDWWWL0–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

NATSIONAL SOFIA

DLWDLL1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	+21	29
2	Oborishte	11	+11	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Kostinbrod	12	+10	21
5	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
6	Septemvri Sofia II	11	+2	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	12	−1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	−1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	+2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	+2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	−4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	−15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	−2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	−6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	−8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	13	−22	7