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Balkan Botevgrad v CSKA Sofia III

Balkan Botevgrad

1–0Full time

CSKA Sofia III

Third League - Southwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Balkan Botevgrad 1–0 CSKA Sofia III BALKAN BOTEVGRAD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Balkan Botevgrad win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Balkan Botevgrad win47%

Draw26%

CSKA Sofia III win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · balkan botevgrad winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Balkan Botevgrad a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Balkan Botevgrad win	47%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
CSKA Sofia III win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Balkan Botevgrad or draw	74%	–	–
Balkan Botevgrad clean sheet	37%	–	–
CSKA Sofia III clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 8.9 8.8 4.4 1 12.6 12.1 6.1 2.1 2 8.9 8.8 4.4 3 4.4 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Balkan Botevgrad down, CSKA Sofia III across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,814 Third League - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Balkan Botevgrad at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). CSKA Sofia III away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Balkan Botevgrad, 1.00 for CSKA Sofia III. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAL 1–4 CSK · CSK 0–1 BAL · BAL 1–0 CSK · CSK 3–2 BAL

Form · last six in Third League - Southwest

BALKAN BOTEVGRAD

LWLDWW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

CSKA SOFIA III

DLWDDW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Minyor Pernik	10	+16	23
2	Oborishte	10	+12	22
3	Bansko	10	+8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	+8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	9	+4	16
6	Balkan Botevgrad	10	−1	16
7	Botev Ihtiman	10	+1	15
8	Kostinbrod	10	+1	15
9	Slavia Sofia II	10	+1	12
10	CSKA Sofia III	9	+1	12
11	Levski Sofia II	10	0	12
12	Septemvri Simitli	10	−4	12
13	Slivnishki geroy	10	−4	11
14	Belasitsa	10	−4	10
15	Chavdar Etropole	10	−11	10
16	Kyustendil	10	−6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	10	−6	7
18	Pirin Razlog	10	−16	7