Home › Football › Third League - Southeast › Zagorets v Maritsa Milevo

Zagorets v Maritsa Milevo

Zagorets

0–4Full time

Maritsa Milevo

Third League - Southeast · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Zagorets 0–4 Maritsa Milevo MARITSA MILEVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maritsa Milevo win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zagorets win31%

Draw23%

Maritsa Milevo win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maritsa milevo winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Maritsa Milevo a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zagorets win	31%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Maritsa Milevo win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Zagorets or draw	54%	–	–
Zagorets clean sheet	22%	–	–
Maritsa Milevo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.7 9.2 7.0 4.0 1 7.8 10.5 8.3 4.6 2.1 2 4.9 6.9 5.2 2.8 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zagorets down, Maritsa Milevo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,861 Third League - Southeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zagorets at home: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Maritsa Milevo away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Zagorets, 1.66 for Maritsa Milevo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ZAG 2–1 MAR · MAR 1–1 ZAG · ZAG 1–1 MAR · MAR 3–1 ZAG

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast

ZAGORETS

WWLWLL3–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 0–3

MARITSA MILEVO

WWWLWW4–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 5–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	8	+19	24
2	Maritsa Milevo	9	+10	21
3	Spartak Plovdiv	8	+10	21
4	Sayana Haskovo	8	+9	17
5	Yambol 1915	8	+15	16
6	Gigant Saedinenie	8	+3	13
7	Neftochimic Burgas	8	+3	13
8	Sozopol	9	+2	13
9	Rozova dolina	9	+1	12
10	Rodopa Smolyan	8	−1	11
11	Zagorets	8	−5	10
12	Botev Plovdiv II	8	−2	9
13	Dimitrovgrad	9	−4	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	8	−11	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	9	−12	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	8	−11	5
17	Levski Karlovo	8	−14	3
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	9	−12	2