Zagorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv II prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Zagorets 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ZAGORETS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zagorets win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.111

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zagorets are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zagorets 65%, draw 18%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 17%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Zagorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zagorets win65%

Draw18%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zagorets

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Southeast

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zagorets winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Zagorets a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zagorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv II~~2.29 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~11 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zagorets win

Published at 60%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zagorets win	65%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Zagorets or draw	83%	–	–
Zagorets clean sheet	36%	–	–
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.3%

0123450 3.9 4.4 2.1 1 8.9 8.4 4.4 2 9.3 9.2 4.7 3 6.9 6.8 3.5 4 4.0 4.0 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zagorets down, Lokomotiv Plovdiv II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,883 Third League - Southeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zagorets at home: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away: 0.67 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Zagorets, 1.03 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv II. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOK 1–2 ZAG · ZAG 1–0 LOK · LOK 0–2 ZAG · ZAG 2–0 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept

ZAGORETS

WLLLLW4–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–1

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV II

LLLLLL3–5 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5