Yambol 1915 v Levski Krumovgrad prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Yambol 1915 2–3 Levski Krumovgrad LEVSKI KRUMOVGRAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Levski Krumovgrad win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levski Krumovgrad are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yambol 1915 37%, draw 22%, Levski Krumovgrad 42%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Yambol 1915 v Levski KrumovgradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Yambol 1915 win37%

Draw22%

Levski Krumovgrad win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yambol 1915

Levski Krumovgrad

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Southeast

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levski krumovgrad winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Levski Krumovgrad a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yambol 1915 v Levski Krumovgrad~~1.64 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 33~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Levski Krumovgrad win

Published at 44%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yambol 1915 win	37%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Levski Krumovgrad win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Yambol 1915 or draw	58%	–	–
Yambol 1915 clean sheet	18%	–	–
Levski Krumovgrad clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.5 6.6 5.4 3.2 1 5.9 9.1 7.9 4.7 2.2 2 4.5 7.4 6.3 3.7 3 2.5 4.2 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yambol 1915 down, Levski Krumovgrad across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,883 Third League - Southeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yambol 1915 at home: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Levski Krumovgrad away: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Yambol 1915, 1.77 for Levski Krumovgrad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~YAM 0–3 LEV · LEV 1–2 YAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept

YAMBOL 1915

WWLDLW2–1 · 7–0 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–0

LEVSKI KRUMOVGRAD

WWWWWW6–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5