Spartak Plovdiv v Neftochimic Burgas prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Spartak Plovdiv 0–1 Neftochimic Burgas SPARTAK PLOVDIV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Plovdiv win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.883

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Plovdiv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Plovdiv 54%, draw 21%, Neftochimic Burgas 26%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Plovdiv v Neftochimic BurgasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Plovdiv win54%

Draw21%

Neftochimic Burgas win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Plovdiv

Neftochimic Burgas

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Southeast

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak plovdiv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Spartak Plovdiv a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Plovdiv v Neftochimic Burgas~~2.01 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 19~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Plovdiv win	54%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Neftochimic Burgas win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Spartak Plovdiv or draw	74%	–	–
Spartak Plovdiv clean sheet	28%	–	–
Neftochimic Burgas clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.8 5.2 3.2 1 7.9 9.0 5.9 2.7 2 7.4 9.0 5.7 2.6 3 5.0 6.0 3.8 4 2.6 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Plovdiv down, Neftochimic Burgas across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,883 Third League - Southeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Plovdiv at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Neftochimic Burgas away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Spartak Plovdiv, 1.31 for Neftochimic Burgas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NEF 1–0 SPA · SPA 3–1 NEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 5 Sept

SPARTAK PLOVDIV

WWLWWW2–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

NEFTOCHIMIC BURGAS

LWWWWW2–4 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5