Sozopol v Zagorets prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SozopolDrawZagorets

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sozopol 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sozopol are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sozopol 61%, draw 20%, Zagorets 19%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sozopol v ZagoretsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sozopol win61%

Draw20%

Zagorets win19%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundSoutheast · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sozopol

Zagorets

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sozopol winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Sozopol a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sozopol v Zagorets~~2.08 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sozopol win	61%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Zagorets win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Sozopol or draw	81%	–	–
Sozopol clean sheet	37%	–	–
Zagorets clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.0%

0123450 4.9 5.5 2.7 1 10.0 9.3 4.9 2 9.4 9.1 4.6 3 6.4 6.1 3.1 4 3.6 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sozopol down, Zagorets across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,892 Third League - Southeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sozopol at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zagorets away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Sozopol, 1.01 for Zagorets. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SOZ 4–0 ZAG · ZAG 2–0 SOZ · SOZ 1–0 ZAG · ZAG 0–2 SOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 18 Sept

SOZOPOL

DWLLWL0–0 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

ZAGORETS

LLLLWD0–2 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5